Black Friday is poised to draw unprecedented crowds this year, yet retailers face a stark paradox: despite the anticipated throngs of bargain hunters, consumers are expected to spend significantly less.
This year’s event on November 28 is forecast to attract more foot traffic than ever, according to estimates from the National Retail Federation (NRF). However, underlying economic indicators suggest these crowds will be far less inclined to convert browsing into purchases.
This disconnect poses a considerable challenge for retailers, who typically rely on the holiday season to generate a third of their annual profitability. Nearly two-thirds of consumers surveyed by the NRF plan to wait for Thanksgiving weekend deals, an increase from 59% in 2024, while average spending is projected to fall to $890 per person from last year’s $902.
The anticipated slowdown underscores the mounting pressures of inflation and weak job growth. “What we’re seeing is that certainly consumers are more cautious,” Massimo Basei, chief commercial officer of Danish jewellery giant Pandora, told Reuters, predicting fierce competition.
In the US, retail sales increased less than expected in September, partly due to elevated prices. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have contributed to this trend, adding approximately 4.9 percentage points to retail prices, according to the non-profit Tax Foundation. Meanwhile, in Europe, the crucial shopping day was marked by strikes at Amazon warehouses in Germany, with separate protests also planned outside Zara stores in Spain.
With unemployment near a four-year high, shoppers have become increasingly selective. US consumer confidence sagged to a seven-month low in November, according to economic research group The Conference Board, with fewer households planning to buy motor vehicles, houses, or other big-ticket items over the next six months, or to make vacation plans.
In response, retailers are targeting cautious shoppers with smaller, more affordable luxury items – such as wallets instead of suitcases, customisable handbags, and low-cost add-ons like Crocs’ Jibbitz charms, noted Nikki Baird, vice president of strategy at software firm Aptos. Spending is increasingly concentrated among affluent households, with the richest 10% of Americans, those earning at least $250,000 annually, accounting for about 48% of all consumer spending in the second quarter of 2025, a steady increase from around 35% in the mid-1990s, according to Moody’s Analytics.
“Increasingly, the headline spending is being driven by a narrower subset of consumers,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics. Yet, even some high-income shoppers are showing restraint; Sricharan Sridhar, based in Tempe, Arizona, earning over $100,000 annually, stated that despite promotional pricing, big-ticket items remained out of his budget.
Clothing, shoes, and accessories top consumers’ online Black Friday shopping lists, followed by children’s toys and books, then gaming and movies, according to CivicScience.
As shoppers hunt for value, many are turning to artificial intelligence. Half of consumers, and 71% of Gen Z shoppers, plan to use AI this Black Friday, according to a Bank of America survey of 2,010 US shoppers. Most will rely on it to compare prices and deals, while others use it to generate gift ideas, track budgets, and even craft personalized messages or cards, the survey found.
Online shopping has, in any case, diluted Black Friday’s significance, with promotions geared towards the event now spread across weeks. “Black Friday is an obsolete concept and has now become just a point in time,” said Andy Tsay, professor at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business.