The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in November, cooler than economists had forecast and a sign that price pressures may be easing.
By the numbers
The CPI was expected to rise 3% on an annual basis last month, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. In the most recent inflation reading, from September, the CPI rate rose 3% on an annual basis.
November’s cooler inflation data comes after prices had inched higher throughout much of the year, with economists pointing to the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs.
The CPI tracks the changes in a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, providing a snapshot of price changes on everyday items such as food and apparel.
So-called core inflation, or CPI data that excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% over the past 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by FactSet had predicted a 3% increase for that measure.
Food prices rose 2.6% on an annual basis in November, down from 3.1% in September.
Thursday’s report provides the first glimpse of recent inflation data since late October, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released September CPI data.
Data collection was disrupted due to the government shutdown, which delayed the September and November CPI reports. The Labor Department on Thursday said it didn’t collect October data due to the shutdown, but said it was able to retroactively acquire some non-survey data for the month.
What economists are saying
Wall Street analysts cautioned that the November inflation figures may be distorted by the government shutdown, which disrupted data collection. The December CPI report should offer a clearer signal of whether the latest reading is a one-off or evidence that price pressures are truly easing, said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
“It’s possible that this does reflect a genuine drop off in inflationary pressures, but such a sudden stop, particularly in the more-persistent services components like rent or shelter is very unusual, at least outside of a recession,” he said in a research note.
Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics, also said some “caution is warranted” in interpreting the November inflation data, given the housing component was unusually weak in the prior two months.
Some analysts said the softer-than-expected inflation reading paves the way for an interest rate cut in January. That helped boost the three major stock indices, which all traded higher Thursday morning after the release of the CPI data. Interest rate traders now place the likelihood of a January rate cut at around 27%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
However, given gaps in the data, the Fed may put more weight on the December CPI release, which will be issued before the central bank’s next interest rate decision in January, according to Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions in Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
“The Fed will instead focus on the December CPI released in mid-January, just two weeks before its next meeting, as a more accurate bellwether for inflation,” he said in an email.
What it means for Americans’ wallets
Food prices are cooling, although certain grocery items remain expensive. Coffee has climbed 18.8% from a year ago, and ground beef has risen 14.9%.
Some retailers have gradually passed along the costs of the Trump administration’s tariffs to consumers, fueling concerns about higher prices. Still, tariff-driven inflation has been milder than many feared, Garrett Melson, a portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said in an email ahead of the CPI release.
In some cases, companies have absorbed the added costs rather than raising prices, while others stockpiled goods ahead of the tariffs, helping blunt price increases.
In November, President Trump cut tariffs on a slate of products that the U.S. typically imports, including bananas and coffee, as his administration sought to address consumer frustrations overaffordability.
While inflation is expected to ease next year, Americans could continue to face cost pressures, said Gregory Daco, chief economist at consulting firm EY-Parthenon.
“I don’t think Americans should brace for surging inflation, but I do think there is a growing risk of a persistent affordability crisis,” he told CBS News earlier this month. “Given prices are rising at a faster clip than they normally would, and income trends are slowing.”