- Nigeria’s 2026 budget heavily relies on uncertain oil earnings amid global supply challenges
- U.S. efforts to revive Venezuela’s oil sector may impact Nigeria’s revenue and competitive market position
- Experts urge Nigeria to diversify revenue sources for greater fiscal resilience amidst looming geopolitical shifts
Nigeria’s 2026 budget is anchored on oil earnings that now look increasingly uncertain.
With total spending set at N58.18 trillion ($41.5 billion) and crude oil prices benchmarked at about $64.85 per barrel, the government is relying heavily on oil export revenues to balance its books.
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But recent geopolitical developments – especially moves by the United States toward reviving Venezuela’s oil industry – are injecting fresh risk into these assumptions.
Trump’s Venezuela strategy and global supply
Oil remains the lifeblood of Nigeria’s public finances, providing the bulk of foreign exchange earnings and federal revenue.
Any downturn in prices or shift in market share can directly affect the government’s ability to fund essential services, infrastructure projects, and debt obligations.
With debt servicing alone consuming a large share of public spending, budget flexibility is already limited.
Recent actions by U.S. President Donald Trump have focused on stimulating investment in Venezuela’s oil sector, which holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves.
After the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump signalled that American energy firms would pour billions into rebuilding Venezuela’s energy infrastructure, potentially unlocking significant production capacity.
Analysts see both opportunities and challenges in this approach. Venezuela’s oil fields have been deteriorating for years due to mismanagement and a lack of investment, and restoring production will require massive capital outlays and long timelines.
But if successful, increased Venezuelan output could add millions of barrels per day to global supply, contributing to a supply overhang.
A forecast from market analysts predicts that Venezuela’s crude output could rise over the next several years, potentially adding downward pressure on global oil prices if output returns closer to historical levels.
What does this mean for Nigeria’s oil revenue?
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For Nigeria, the implications are multi-layered. First, higher global supply and competitive pricing could weigh on crude benchmarks, making it harder for Abuja to meet revenue targets.
Lower prices would shrink the dollars earned per barrel exported, squeezing government receipts just as spending demands rise.
Second, competition for traditional buyers – especially in the U.S. market – could intensify.
Nigeria was one of Africa’s leading exporters of crude to the United States during 2025, and a revived Venezuelan presence might divert demand away from Nigerian grades, further reducing export volumes and revenue.
This stress comes at a time when Nigeria’s oil production targets remain ambitious but challenging to meet.
Structural issues, including under-investment, pipeline theft, and operational inefficiencies, have kept daily output below budget projections, compounding fiscal pressure, according to a report by Reuters.
However, energy policy analyst Adeola Yusuf said the impact on Nigeria’s economy may not be visible immediately, stating that Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is in bad shape.
“The US has a lot of repairs to do before it can pump Venezuela’s oil. The pipeline and the entire energy infrastructure are badly damaged,” he said.
“In the short term, Nigeria can survive, but in the long run, and if the US gets it right, Nigeria may suffer.”
Osas Igho, a financial expert, told Legit.ng that the US planned takeover of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves may spell doom for Nigeria in the long run.
“According to President Trump, US oil companies will take charge of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, and this may affect Nigeria’s revenue. The impact may notbe immediate,” he said.
Calls for fiscal resilience
Experts argue that the current situation highlights the dangers of relying too heavily on oil.
While Nigeria has taken steps toward tax reform and boosting non-oil revenues, these measures typically take time to bear fruit.
BusinessDay reports that, with stiff competition on the horizon and structural vulnerabilities, fiscal planners may need to revisit budget assumptions and build stronger revenue buffers.
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Source: Getty Images
As global supply dynamics evolve, the intersection of geopolitics and energy markets will continue shaping Nigeria’s economic outlook – and the government’s ability to maintain budget stability as the 2026 fiscal year unfolds.
Nigeria’s budget in trouble as oil production slumps
Legit.ng earlier reported that following the global crude oil price crash, Nigeria’s average daily crude production declined again in March, threatening the local currency and the national budget.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that the daily crude production figure averaged 1.40 million barrels daily, from 1.465 in February.
In January, Nigeria’s crude production rose slightly above 1.5 million barrels daily, a quota allocated to the nation by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Source: Legit.ng