- NMDPRA has predicted falling fuel prices as supply and competition improve in Nigeria’s oil sector
- The removal of fuel subsidy fuels market efficiency, enhancing price stability for Nigerians
- Local refineries are essential for meeting domestic demand before targeting international markets
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said Nigerians should expect a sustained decline in the prices of petrol, diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), as supply improves and competition deepens across the downstream oil and gas sector.
The authority’s chief eecutive, Mr Saidu Mohammed, made this known on Sunday during an inspection tour of Aradel Holdings Plc facilities in Ogbele community, Ahoada East Local Government Area of Rivers State.
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Rising supply, competition driving price cuts
Mohammed attributed the ongoing and expected price reductions to increased fuel supply, stronger private sector participation and heightened competition following the removal of fuel subsidies
According to him, market forces are now working more efficiently, creating room for price stability and affordability.
“The more supply we have, the lower the price. This is already evident as petrol prices have dropped from about N1,000 to around N800 per litre due to competition,” Mohammed said.
He noted that Nigerians were gradually transitioning towards more affordable energy options as local production and distribution improved nationwide.
Subsidy removal unlocks market efficiency
The NMDPRA chief explained that the removal of fuel subsidy had been critical in allowing the downstream sector to function properly.
He stressed that sustained competition, rather than government subsidies, remains the most reliable way to guarantee an adequate supply of petrol and cooking gas at fair prices.
“Sustained competition will ensure efficient supply of petrol and gas at affordable prices for Nigerians,” he said.
Mohammed added that Nigeria needed more refineries with advanced conversion capacity to produce diesel, fuel oil, naphtha, LPG and petrol, noting that local refining was key to long-term price stability.
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Local needs before export ambitions
While reaffirming Nigeria’s ambition to export petroleum products to Africa, Europe and the Americas, Mohammed said domestic demand must first be fully met by local operators.
He also highlighted President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to a free-market economy, recalling that fuel subsidy removal was the President’s first major policy decision.
According to him, the policy unlocked private investment and stimulated activity across the oil and gas value chain.
Reviving state refineries, boosting local economies
On the state-owned refineries, Mohammed said their operational status remained largely under the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
However, he disclosed that NMDPRA was engaging NNPCL to ensure crude oil delivery and product availability at the Port Harcourt and Warri refinery reserves.
“Restoring loading activities will boost local economies and revive product distribution within host communities,” he said, adding that Nigerians would feel the economic impact even before full refinery operations resume.
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Aradel showcases indigenous capacity
Mohammed praised Aradel Holdings for demonstrating Nigeria’s capacity to design, finance and operate world-class energy infrastructure without foreign operatorship.
He disclosed that the company’s ongoing expansion would enable petrol loading from its refinery before the end of 2027.
“Aradel has supplied gas to NLNG for about 13 years, operates an 11,000 barrels-per-day refinery and runs a virtual gas pipeline distributing compressed natural gas across Nigeria,” he said.
Dangote alone not enough
He stressed that despite the scale of the Dangote Refinery, Nigeria would require multiple refineries to meet domestic, continental and global demand.
Describing the midstream sector as Nigeria’s strongest economic growth driver, Mohammed assured investors of continued regulatory incentives to attract large-scale investments.
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Responding, Aradel Holdings’ Managing Director, Mr Adegbite Falade, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to expanding refining capacity, commercialising gas and eliminating routine gas flaring.
“Nigerians should expect continued scaling, local value addition and prioritisation of domestic energy needs,” Falade said
Fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that Nigeria consumed about 52,800 metric tonnes of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in 2025.
Of this, domestic marketers supplied roughly 45,800 metric tonnes, while imports accounted for just 7,100 metric tonnes, or about 13 of total consumption